Expectations, International Business Cycles and the Balance of Payments
构建了一个包含理性预期的随机国际收支货币分析法模型，分析国家特定冲击和信息差异如何导致国际收支周期波动，并强调资本流动与商品市场调整速度差异的作用。
THIS PAPER DEVELOPS a stochastic version of the monetary approach to the balance of payments (MABP) that incorporates the rational expectations hypothesis. Within the framework cyclical movements of the balance of payments are attributable to the occurrence of country-specific shocks and to endogenously determined differences in expectations of unobserved world variables. With perfect contemporaneous information, the model yields the long-run results of the standard monetary approach. However, in the presence of uncertainty and imperfect information, these long-run results no longer obtain. The analysis stresses the importance of capital mobility in the form of a centralized world capital market that contrasts with the decentralized production and exchange of commodities. This represents an attempt at capturing the popular idea that assets markets may adjust faster than commodity or factor markets. An outcome of this fixed exchange rate model is that prices and activity levels are contemporaneously positively correlated across countries. As such, the analysis is a prelude to an equilibrium theory of the international business cycle and, in particular, the role of alternative monetary institutions, including alternative exchange rate regimes. A number of the results in this paper are similar to propositions in Lucas [S] and Barro [1] relative to closed economies. This is not surprising since, on the one hand,