The two pillars of the European Central Bank
通过区分通胀的短期和长期成分，提出一个实证模型来解释欧洲央行的双支柱策略。研究发现货币可作为政策指标，但不应单独设支柱，而应与其他指标综合评估。
I interpret the European Central Bank's two-pillar strategy by proposing an empirical model for inflation that distinguishes between the short- and long-run components of inflation. The latter component depends on an exponentially weighted moving average of past monetary growth and the former on the output gap. Estimates for the 1971-2003 period suggest that money can be combined with other indicators to form the âbroadly based assessment of the outlook for future price developments' that constitutes the ECB's second pillar. However, the analysis does not suggest that money should be treated differently from other indicators. While money is a useful policy indicator, all relevant indicators should be assessed in an integrated manner, and a separate pillar focused on monetary aggregates does not appear necessary. âStefan Gerlach