Supply-Side Shocks: The Case of Australian Gold
利用供给侧冲击模型分析1850年代澳大利亚发现金矿对殖民地经济的影响，发现移民的作用远超理论预期，并解释了该时期多个看似无关的历史现象。
A literature has developed recently to analyze the disruptive effects on small, open economies of a sudden change in the value of their natural resources. The paper looks to that literature to explain the effect on the Australian colonies of the discovery of substantial gold deposits in the 1850s. The price and quantity adjustments predicted by the model are found to be well supported by the historical experience with one important exception. Immigration played a far greater role in the Australian case than has been suggested in the theoretical literature. The model does, however, allow for a compact description of the confusing decade in Australian history and explains a number of previously unconnected phenomena.