Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting
利用足球半场结束前进球这一干净信息事件，结合高频数据检验博彩市场对重大新闻的价格反应，发现价格更新迅速且充分。
An efficient market incorporates news into prices immediately and fully. Tests for efficiency in financial markets have been undermined by information leakage. We test for efficiency in sports betting markets---real-world markets where news breaks remarkably cleanly. Applying a novel identification to high-frequency data, we investigate the reaction of prices to goals scored on the ``cusp'' of half time. This strategy allows us to separate the market's response to major news (a goal), from its reaction to the continual flow of minor game-time news. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.