The Rise and Fall of the Arm: An Econometric Analysis of Mortgage Choice
利用全美房地产经纪人协会的大样本数据，建立计量模型分析借款人选择可调利率还是固定利率抵押贷款的影响因素，并模拟可调利率抵押贷款兴起的根源。
This paper estimates an empirical model of the choice between adjustable- and fixe d-rate mortgages using a large national database compiled by the Nat ional Association of Realtors. The explanatory variables in the probi t choice equation include borrower characteristics, regional dummies, the FRM rate, and the FRM-ARM rate differential. Since the intrerest rate on the mortgage not chosen is unobserved, this rate must be est imated in a way that eliminates selectivity bias. Simulation of the e stimated choice equation provides insight into the origin of the ARM revolution. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.