Re‐evaluating the Harbinson Proposal – Prospects for the EU25: A Note
使用哈宾森提案和七月框架，比较了多哈回合可能情景与现实基线，聚焦欧盟25国贸易带来的福利影响，发现关税约束过剩等因素使欧盟仅实现完全自由化长期福利增益的10%。
Abstract In this study, we use the Harbinson Proposal and July Framework to compare a ‘likely’ Doha scenario with a realistic baseline. The novelty of this study is that we focus exclusively on the trade‐led welfare impacts in selected EU member states. The important features of this note are the: (i) usage of the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (version 6) data; (ii) focus on EU25 regions incorporating all major Common Agricultural Policy instruments and reforms; and (iii) inclusion of binding tariff overhangs into the Harbinson tariff reductions. Results show the damping effects of tariff‐binding overhangs on welfare outcomes. This and other factors which limit the gains to liberalisation mean that the EU25 only realises 10% of its long‐run welfare gain potential, as defined by complete liberalisation.