Shocks, Consumption and Income Diversification in Rural Ethiopia
研究发现埃塞俄比亚农村家庭无法抵御每五年一次的平均降雨失败冲击，但其他极端天气和个别冲击对消费影响不大；农业冲击虽减少农业收入，却同等程度刺激非农收入，但严重干旱时这种平滑机制失效。
Abstract We present new evidence that households are unable to protect themselves from rainfall failure that occurs on average every five years in rural Ethiopia. However, other less extreme rainfall variation and idiosyncratic shocks such as illness and crop pests do not impact significantly on consumption. Agricultural shocks impact negatively on farm income as expected, however they also stimulate non-agricultural earnings by an equivalent amount. In the case of a covariate shock such as severe rainfall failure, this smoothing mechanism may be ineffective and rainfall insurance or drought-triggered safety nets could provide further protection.