Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages: Evidence from Sweden and the United States
研究商业周期对工人未来晋升和工资的长期影响，发现经济繁荣期进入劳动力市场的队列晋升更快、职位更高，且晋升效应解释了至少一半的工资队列效应。
Abstract:This paper studies the long-term effects of the business cycle on workers' future promotions and wages. Using the Swedish employer-employee matched data, we find that a cohort of workers entering the labor market during a boom gets promoted faster and reaches higher ranks. This procyclical promotion cohort effect persists even after controlling for workers' initial jobs, and explains at least half of the wage cohort effects that previous studies have focused on. We repeat the same analyses using personnel records from a single U.S. company, and obtain the same qualitative results.