Trade Openness and Inflation Episodes in the OECD
扩展了Boschen和Weise的模型,研究贸易开放度如何影响经合组织国家通胀大幅上升(通胀启动)的概率,发现开放度提高会直接和间接(通过限制大选触发通胀的作用)降低通胀启动概率。
Boschen and Weise (Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2003) model the probability of a large upturn in inflation in the OECD (an inflation start). We extend their work to consider the impact of trade openness on the probability of such an event. The main finding is that increased openness reduces the probability of an inflation start, both directly, and indirectly through restricting the role of general elections in triggering inflation starts.