A Note on Import Substitution versus Export Promotion as Strategies for Development
在一个三部门经济框架下分析进口替代与出口促进两种战略对现代部门的影响，发现出口促进更可能促进现代部门整体增长，而进口替代可能导致去工业化。
This article examines, in a very simple framework, the impact of alternative development strategies on the "modern sector." In a three-sector economy, producing two traded goods ("modern sector") and one nontraded good ("traditional sector"), it can be shown that, under plausible assumptions, export promotion (in the sense of promoting production in the export sector) is the more promising strategy, while favoring production in the import sector eventually leads to a decrease of the overall production in the modern sector, to deindustrialization. Copyright 1989 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG