Group Confidence Pressures in Iterative Decisions
研究面对面口头反馈与书面反馈两种群体决策技术对问题估计准确性的影响，发现群体互动降低准确性但增加个体信心，提示群体思维风险。
This study investigated the effects of two group decision making techniques on a set of four problems in groups of sizes 3, 7, and 11. Participants included 192 male and 132 female undergraduates. Estimates that could be evaluated for accuracy for each of the problems were collected for a series of three trials. One set of groups received face-to-face verbal feedback from each other, while the other set received written feedback. These data were compared to mean estimates obtained from randomly selected, pooled individual estimates. The results suggested that the pooled individual estimates were somewhat more accurate than those obtained from either of the interacting groups. At the same time, all individuals became more confident of their answers, suggesting the possibility of groupthink. No effects for different group sizes were found, possibly due to the constraints imposed by the structured nature of the two techniques.