The model: Integrating the science and economics of global warming
介绍了PAGE95模型,该模型整合了全球变暖的最新科学发现(如硫酸盐冷却效应、卤碳温室效应减弱)和经济学分析,用于评估气候变化政策。
PAGE is a computer simulation model developed in 1992 for policy analysis of the global warming problem. This paper surveys key developments in understanding the global warming problem that have occurred since 1992. For example, anthropogenic sulphates have been found to have a significant cooling effect. Halocarbons, once thought to be the most potent greenhouse gases, are now believed to have only a slight global warming effect because they destroy ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas. Furthermore, case studies in various regions of the world have improved our ability to predict future damages from global warming. These developments have strong implications for the economic consequences of the greenhouse effect and motivated an update of the PAGE model. This paper discusses the new model version, PAGE95, and conclusions for global warming policy analysis.