用庄家的钱赌博并试图保本:先前结果对风险选择的影响

Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice

Management Science · 1990
被引 394
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

研究先前收益或损失如何影响后续风险决策,提出编辑规则解释“庄家钱效应”(先前收益增加风险寻求)和“保本效应”(先前损失下保本机会特别吸引人),基于真实货币实验数据。

Abstract

How is risk-taking affected by prior gains and losses? While normative theory implores decision makers to only consider incremental outcomes, real decision makers are influenced by prior outcomes. We first consider how prior outcomes are combined with the potential payoffs offered by current choices. We propose an editing rule to describe how decision makers frame such problems. We also present data from real money experiments supporting a “house money effect” (increased risk seeking in the presence of a prior gain) and “break-even effects” (in the presence of prior losses, outcomes which offer a chance to break even are especially attractive).

Prior outcomesRisky choice