Long-Term Determinants of the Demographic Transition, 1870–2000
利用1870年以来多国面板数据，发现基础教育是生育率下降最稳健的长期决定因素，而教育和收入共同影响死亡率，但教育单独解释了20世纪死亡率的大部分变化。
This paper analyzes the long-term economic determinants of the demographic transition using a large panel of countries since 1870. A simple theoretical framework accounts for the possibly nonmonotonic variations of fertility in the course of economic development. As predicted by unified growth theory, I find that primary schooling, rather than income or health-related variables, is the most robust determinant of the fertility transition. As regards the health transition, both education and income are significant determinants of mortality rates, but education alone accounts for the bulk of their time variation over the twentieth century. Thus, education can be viewed as the main long-term determinant of the demographic transition. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.