Ex-ante agricultural research evaluation with site specific technology generation: the case of sorghum in Kenya
提出一个动态空间多市场模型，用于事前评估农业研究效益，并以肯尼亚高粱研究为例，发现研究效益在不同目标区差异巨大，但人口增长对市场的影响大于技术进步。
Agricultural commodity research has very site-specific productivity impacts. Crucial determinants of the magnitude and distribution of research benefits include agroecological conditions for technology generation and adoption, as well as commodity market-structure. This paper presents a process for ex-ante research evaluation which accounts for these factors with a dynamic, spatial multi-market model. Simulation results based on sorghum research in Kenya demonstrate that potential research benefits can vary dramatically across program research target zones. In Kenya, however, population-induced demand growth not technological development will have the greatest influence on future sorghum markets. © 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.