Cyclical Effects of Government's Employment and Goods Purchases
区分政府支出的商品采购和雇员薪酬两部分，发现两者对私人产出、就业和投资有相反影响，且政府支出不再是美国商业周期的重要驱动因素，其顺周期性主要源于对技术冲击引发的产出波动的正向响应。
Distinguishing between the goods purchase and employee compensation components of government spending is important. Shocks to government goods purchases and shocks to government employment, have the opposite effects on private output, private employment, and private investment. Moreover, with this distinction in place, quantitative analysis reveals that government spending is no longer a significant driving source of the U.S. business cycle. On the contrary, the components of government spending are procyclical in the U.S. data primarily because of their positive responses to the output fluctuations generated by technology shocks. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.