Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle
发现，当工作经验有回报时，生产率增长放缓会提高保留工资，从而降低总体就业。该机制解释了1968-2006年间低技能男性非就业的全部增长和所有男性非就业约一半的增长。
That the employment rate appears to respond to changes in trend growth is an enduring macroeconomic puzzle. This paper shows that, in the presence of a return to experience, a slowdown in productivity growth raises reservation wages, thereby lowering aggregate employment. The paper develops new evidence that shows this mechanism is important for explaining the growth-employment puzzle. The combined effects of changes in aggregate wage growth and returns to experience account for all the increase from 1968 to 2006 in nonemployment among low-skilled men and for approximately half the increase in nonemployment among all men.