The transmission of US shocks to Latin America
研究美国冲击如何传导至八个拉美国家，发现美国货币冲击对拉美影响显著，而实际供需冲击影响不大；浮动汇率和货币局制度在通胀和利率反应上存在差异，金融渠道是关键传导机制。
Abstract I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability of Latin American macrovariables, producing continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.