Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
研究了金融危机期间发达经济体的增长预测误差与计划财政紧缩之间的关系，发现财政紧缩力度越大，实际增长越低于预期，暗示财政乘数被低估。
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected. The relation is particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may in part reflect learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.