A Model for Predicting Frequencies of Random Events
提出一种基于历史数据估计个体事件发生频率的新技术，同时考虑群体变异和个体变化倾向两种不确定性，并给出示例。
This paper presents a new technique for forecasting frequencies of events over time for individuals. The technique bases future occurrences on an estimation procedure based on historical data. The estimation procedure incorporates two types of uncertainty: population variation and individual propensity to change. An example is presented.