Monetary Policy in the Greenspan Era: A Time Series Analysis of Rules vs. Discretion*
用协整方法分析联邦基金利率、失业率、通胀和长期债券利率的关系，发现联邦基金利率、失业率和债券利率存在长期稳定关系，可作为政策目标，而传统泰勒规则与数据不符。
Abstract Relationships between the Federal funds rate, unemployment, inflation and the long‐term bond rate are investigated with cointegration techniques. We find a stable long‐term relationship between the Federal funds rate, unemployment and the bond rate. This relationship is interpretable as a policy target because deviations are corrected via the Federal funds rate. Deviations of the actual Federal funds rate from the estimated target give simple indications of discretionary monetary policy, and the larger deviations relate to special episodes outside the current information set. A more traditional Taylor‐type target, where inflation appears instead of the bond rate, does not seem congruent with the data.