Perennial Crop Supply Response: A Kalman Filter Approach
构建了一个多年生作物供给反应的状态空间模型，利用卡尔曼滤波和迭代参数搜索从总种植面积和产量数据中估计未知参数和年龄组面积，并以苜蓿为例展示了现有种植面积对不同年龄组新种植和移除的差异化影响。
Abstract A state‐space model for perennial crop supply response is developed. New plantings and removals depend on the existing age structure of the crop and expected values for future prices and other exogenous variables. Acreage in individual age categories evolves depending upon existing acreage, new plantings, and removals. The Kalman filter and an iterative parameter search provide maximum‐likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters and age group acreages from observed data on total acreage and production. An empirical application for alfalfa shows that existing acreage has differential impacts on new plantings and removals depending upon age.