Dynamic Revenue Estimation
探讨采用动态收入估算方法的问题，该方法会纳入政策的预期宏观经济效应。文章描述了当前收入估算流程及其在政策制定中的使用，评估了其作为预测工具的方法和表现，并指出动态方法面临的困难，最后将估算方法的选择与政治过程及估算用途联系起来。
This paper considers the question of adopting ‘dynamic’ revenue estimation methods, which would incorporate the predicted macroeconomic effects of policies. It describes the current revenue estimation process and how these estimates are used in the formation of policy. It then evaluates this process as an exercise in forecasting, considering not only its methodology but also its performance. This evaluation illustrates some of the difficulties that would accompany attempts to use dynamic methods. Finally, the paper relates the choice among different revenue estimation procedures to the political process and the use to which the revenue estimates are put.