Inferring the Distribution of Households' Duration of Residence From Data on Current Residence Time
利用五套大型政府普查数据，通过构建搬家行为模型，从当前居住时间估计家庭居住总时长分布，发现美国平均总居住时长5.5年，约为平均当前居住时长10.7年的一半，为住房市场行为预测提供更可靠方法。
Abstract Estimates of households' expected duration of residence are important to private and public decision makers. The common methods of estimation have been shown to be unreliable. This article presents a measurement framework for estimating total time of residence using five large sets of published government census data on the housing market. By developing a moving-behavior model, the distribution of total residence duration can be estimated from the census data on the age of current residency (i.e., time since moving into current residence). Among other results, we found that the average total residence duration for all U.S. households, 5.5 years, is about half the average age residence time, 10.7 years. This extended intertemporal model provides more reliable estimates for the age and expected duration of occupancy. Therefore, the model better explains and predicts housing-market behavior and also the demand for the many housing-related products and services. KEY WORDS: Age/interarrival time of a renewal processRenewal theoryResidential mobility