On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries*
测算发展中国家消费波动的福利成本，发现其远高于美国，且消除波动的福利收益可能超过永久性提高一个百分点增长的收益。
Macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the United States, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several models, we provide such a measure. We find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding U.S. estimate. Moreover, in many poor countries, the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever.