The Functioning of Floating Exchange Rates: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications.
集收录18篇未发表论文，聚焦浮动汇率制下短期汇率波动，指出汇率变动剧烈、不稳定持续、贸易失衡未改、央行干预受限等问题，并探讨理论与政策含义。
This is a collection of eighteen previously unpublished papers that focuses primarily on the analysis of exchange rate movements in the short run within a system of generalized floating. The motivation behind this concentration on the short run is the authors' disenchantment with the functioning of the floating exchange rate system. They feel that most of the expectations present at the advent of the float have not been realized. In particular, they observe that (1) exchange rate movement has been ''alarmingly erratic, (2) there have been no signs of decreased instability over time, (3) trade (not payments) imbalances have persisted despite large changes in exchange rates, and (4) monetary authorities have been unable to pursue their domestic objectives due to their large-scale intervention in foreign exchange markets. Unfortunately, of these issues, the only one dealt with effectively in the text is the volatility of exchange rate movements. To this end, the text is divided into four parts-theory, empirical evidence, policy implications, and the efficacy of generalized floating. The last section is an unusual addition to a collection of academic research. It is composed of the views of a number of prominent policymakers concerning both the efficacy and the future of the floating exchange rate system. Several articles attempt to provide a conceptual foundation for the short-run variability of exchange rate movements and the link between this variability and monetary policy. McKinnon and Dornbusch rely on models with basic Keynesian characteristics. Specifically, McKinnon analyzes the problem of overshooting through the impact of monetary disturbances within a world where commodity prices are fixed in the short run (and consequently, where purchasing power parity does not hold for significant time periods). The most interesting feature of his analysis is that he explicitly incorporates the behavior of foreign exchange dealers who participate in domestic money markets and who also perform the role of stabilizing speculators. He concludes that, if dealers are uncertain about the future course of domestic monetary policies and also face capital constraints that limit their ability to respond to exchange rate movements, uncoordinated domestic monetary policies will lead to exchange rate fluctuations that can be larger than changes in either interest rates or the domestic money supply. Dornbusch's paper is essentially a critical review of the monetary, balance-ofpayments, Mundell-Fleming, and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination in the short run. He extends the asset market model to investigate the dynamic patterns of exchange rate movements in response to monetary disturbances. Here he relies on the Keynesian notions of ''sticky commodity prices and the determination of the interest rate in the money market. In this world, if the nominal money supply increases, the real money supply also increases initially because prices are fixed in the short run. Consequently, the interest rate must decline to equilibrate the money market. This decline in the domestic interest rate ignites an incipient capital outflow until the exchange rate has depreciated suffi-