The Exchange Rate and the International Transmission of Business Cycle Disturbances: Some Evidence from the Great Depression
检验了浮动汇率制度是否能使经济免受外国商业周期扰动的影响，利用大萧条时期的证据，发现浮动汇率并不能有效隔离外国冲击。
ADVOCATES OF THE FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM have often claimed that this financial system insulates an economy from foreign business cycle disturbances. This claim has been viewed lately with considerable skepticism. Many leading economists have argued that while flexible exchange rates enable a country to independently determine (the rate of growth of) its money supply, they will not prevent foreign disturbances from affecting the demand for real cash balances through channels such as capital flows, currency substitution, or the wageprice setting process. Domestic output and prices, thus, will not be much more independent of foreign output and prices under flexible exchange rates. l The theoretical arguments purporting that the insulation powers of the flexible exchange rate are limited have found empirical support in the recent experience in which output and price fluctuations have continued to be related among many coun-