A calorie‐arbitrage model of Chinese grain trade
提出一个以国际热量套利为核心的模型，解释中国粮食贸易数据，并指出考虑套利后对粮食自给率的评估更乐观，未来进口受国内政策影响大。
A model in which international calorie‐arbitrage plays a central role is shown to be consistent with available statistical data on the grain trade of the People's Republic of China. Making allowance for the arbitrage component of total calorie availability leads to a more favourable assessment of the extent to which foodgrain self‐sufficiency has been achieved since the late 1960s. Future Chinese imports of foodgrain will be closely related to particular domestic food and agricultural policies, suggesting that traditional models which project trade as the gap between grain requirements and domestic production are likely to be inaccurate.