Valuation Bias in Commercial Appraisal: A Transaction Price Feedback Experiment
通过实验检验交易价格反馈是否会导致评估师估值偏差，发现“过低”反馈使后续估值显著偏高，而“过高”反馈影响不显著，估值离散度约10%。
Experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that transaction price feedback may bias valuation judgment. Among participating appraisers, evidence of asymmetrical response was found. The group receiving transaction feedback indicating that current judgments were “too low” responded with judgments in subsequent, unrelated valuations that were significantly higher than the group that received no feedback. The response from “too high” feedback was in the expected direction (lower value judgments) but was not significant. Additionally, valuation dispersion of around 10% revealed in these experiments is consistent with studies of valuation variability and may reflect an upper bound of typical commercial appraisal dispersion.