Dry Holes in Economic Research
研究发现1974至1996年间，尽管大学对经济学研究的投入大幅增加，但论文未被引用率仍稳定在26%，表明额外激励并未提升研究产出。
Summary Between 1974 and 1996, there was a substantial increase in the emphasis on academic research in universities located in the United States and elsewhere throughout the world. This increased emphasis was, and continues to be, reflected in a variety of increased incentives for faculty to produce research, including higher salaries, reduced teaching loads, increased money for travel, on so on. Yet, as we report in this paper, during this time period the rate of uncitedness of economics papers remained constant (at 26 percent). Clearly, universities and taxpayers/supporters of universities are obtaining no enhancement of research output (in terms of citations) from the increased subsidy to faculty research. We discuss the implications of this result for the publication and organization of economic research. In particular, we discuss the fact that resources devoted to up‐front screening of papers by authors and journals have risen substantially over this period, but to no avail with respect to reducing the incidence of dry holes.