Toward a Model of the Office Building Sector
针对现有办公楼市场分析方法（如市场吸收率、正常空置率）的不足，本文构建了一个供需统计模型，用于预测办公空间存量、新建量、空置率和租金等关键变量。
High rise office buildings represent large capital outlays in very competitive markets. Investment and development decisions require careful market analysis to assure sufficient demand to lease the office space at rental rates which will make the venture financially attractive. Present methodology for analyzing future commercial real estate market conditions can at best be said to be inadequate. This methodology relies on concepts such as “market absorption” rates and “normal” vacancy rates. These concepts usually rely on accounting type and trend line techniques to provide forecasts of space demand. In this paper we provide an alternative methodology for forecasting the key variables in the office space market by developing a statistical model of supply and demand. The key variables that need to be forecasted are the stock of office space (in square feet), the flow of new office construction (in square feet), the vacancy rate (in percent), and the rent for office space (net rent per square foot).