Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations
构建了一个假设收益递增和技术进步空间差异的模型，模拟欧盟178个区域的生产率增长，发现受资助区域产出增长更快能提升全欧盟生产率并缩小技术差距，而核心区域增长更快虽提高生产率但加剧不平等。
Neoclassical theory assumes diminishing returns to capital and spatially constant exogenously‐determined technological progress, although it is questionable whether these are realistic assumptions for modeling manufacturing productivity growth variations across European Union (E.U.) regions. In contrast, the model developed in this paper assumes increasing returns and spatially varying technical progress, and is linked to endogenous growth theory and particularly to ‘new economic geography’ theory. Simulations, involving 178 E.U.regions, show that productivity levels and growth rates are higher in all E.U. regions when the financially assisted (Objective 1) regions have faster output growth. This also reduces inequalities in levels of technology. Allowing the core regions to grow faster has a similar effect of raising productivity growth rates across the E.U., although inequality increases. Thus, the simulations are seen as an attempt to develop a type of ‘computable geographical equilibrium’ model which, as suggested by Fujita, Krugman, and Venables (1999), is the way theoretical economic geography needs to evolve in order to become a predictive discipline.