Blue Chip Rationality Tests
检验蓝筹股共识预测服务中个人预测的理性程度，通过问卷探究预测方法，发现基于主流经济理论并融入判断的预测更可能理性。
This paper tests the rationality of forecasts made by individuals who contribute to the Blue Chip consensus forecasting service and tries, by means of a questionnaire on forecasting methods, to establish why some forecasters appear more rational than others. Tests based on consensus forecasts prove unreliable as guides to the number of individuals who produce rational forecasts. Individual forecasts are more likely to be rational if they are based on a mainstream economic theory and incorporate a substantial element of judgment. Copyright 1991 by Ohio State University Press.