Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks
从理论上论证，大规模汇率冲击（如1980年代美元周期）可能对贸易流量和均衡汇率产生持久影响，通过企业进入退出决策的不可逆性以及贸易滞后对汇率的反馈机制。
This paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks-such as the 1980s dollar cycle-may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself. We begin with a partial-equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level. Then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself. Here we see that a large capital inflow, which leads to an initial appreciation, can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance.