Calibration of Option‐Based Probability Assessments in Agricultural Commodity Markets
基于校准概念开发了一种评估期权价格概率可靠性的方法，并对四种农产品进行实证检验，发现玉米和活牛市场的评估可靠，但大豆价格波动率被高估、生猪价格位置被低估。
Abstract A method for evaluating the reliability of option‐based price probability assessments is developed based on the calibration concept. Empirical tests using goodness‐of‐fit criteria are applied to four agricultural commodities. Results suggest that assessments in the corn and live cattle markets are reliable, but such assessments overstate the volatility of soybean prices and understate the location of hog prices.