Endogenous Growth: A Knife Edge or the Razor's Edge?*
针对近期文献认为全球生育率下降将导致经济停滞的悲观预测，本文论证了基于创新的增长理论并非建立在不可靠的刀锋假设上，且与证据一致。
Abstract According to much of the recent growth literature, the dramatic worldwide decline in fertility currently taking place should ultimately lead to global economic stagnation. This pessimistic prediction is not shared by the original innovation‐based growth literature. In recent years, however, this strand of the literature has been criticized for resting on implausible knife‐edge assumptions and for its inconsistency with available evidence. In this paper, we argue that this conclusion is unwarranted.