SOME STATISTICAL ISSUES IN THE ESTIMATION OF A SIMPLE COST‐VOLUME‐PROFIT MODEL*
研究了简单成本-数量-利润模型中长期和单期目标量的点估计和区间估计，发现点估计有偏但一致，并利用Fieller方法获得区间估计，对从事成本会计和财务分析的学者有参考价值。
ABSTRACT This paper presents point and interval estimators of both long‐run and single‐period target quantities in a simple cost‐volume‐profit (C‐V‐P) model. This model is a stochastic version of the “accountant's break‐even chart” where the major component is a semivariable cost function. Although these features suggest obvious possibilities for practical application, a major purpose of this paper is to examine the statistical properties of target quantity estimators in C‐V‐P analysis. It is shown that point estimators of target quantity are biased and possess no moments of positive order, but are consistent. These properties are also shared by previous break‐even models, even when all parameters are assumed known with certainty. After a test for positive variable margins, Fieller's [6] method is used to obtain interval estimators of relevant target quantities. This procedure therefore minimizes possible ambiguities in stochastic break‐even analysis (noted by Ekern [3]).