The Demand for Dairy Products: Structure, Prediction, and Decomposition
利用家庭食品消费调查数据估计乳制品需求结构，用时间序列数据预测牛奶和黄油消费，并分解经济和人口因素对需求变化的影响。
Abstract This article presents an analysis of the demand for dairy products. First, the structure of dairy product demand is estimated using the Household Food Consumption Survey data. Under the assumption of a two‐stage budgeting procedure, a complete demand system for food incorporating demographic effects is estimated. Next, using the demand relations estimated from cross‐section data, prediction interval tests utilizing time‐series data are performed for milk and butter. Last, factors affecting consumption are classified into economic and demographic effects and a decomposition of the causes of changes in demand over time is performed.