Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys
分析密歇根消费者调查中汽油价格预测数据，发现其预测能力与无变化预测相当，但在经济危机期间显著优于后者，且预测分散度与价格波动同步上升。
This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.