课堂游戏:资产市场中的投机与泡沫

Classroom Games: Speculation and Bubbles in an Asset Market

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 1998
被引 74
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

描述了一个课堂实验,学生交易价值不确定的资产,通过设定股息和毁灭概率使基础价值恒定,从而观察投机泡沫如何由预期分歧引发,适合用于教学讨论贴现、理性预期和逆向归纳。

Abstract

This paper describes a classroom exercise in which students trade assets of uncertain value in a sequence of market periods. Assets pay one-dollar dividends at the end of each period, but once the dividend is paid there is fixed probability that the asset will be destroyed. Dividends and probabilities are chosen so that the fundamental value is constant over time. Speculative bubbles can be caused by divergent expectations about other traders' valuations of the asset. This exercise provides an interactive framework that facilitates discussions of discounting, rational expectations, and backward induction.

资产市场投机泡沫课堂实验理性预期