Credibility, Reputation, and the Mexican Peso Crisis
用一个权衡国内利率变动成本与汇率稳定的模型，分析1994年墨西哥比索危机前可信度与声誉因素的作用，发现危机前贬值预期未显著上升，但贬值后利差扩大可能源于政策偏好转变。
A model emphasizing the tradeoff between the costs of changes of domestic interest rates and exchange rate stability is used to assess the role of credibility and reputational factors in the lead-up to the December 1994 crisis of the Mexican peso. Devaluation expectations are decomposed into the probability that the authorities do not truly put a high weight on exchange rate stability and the probability that an exogenous shock will make a devaluation the preferred policy. Estimates indicate that prior to the peso collapse there was no significant increase in devaluation fears and no perceived shift in the authorities' policy preferences. But the increase in the differential that occurred after the devaluation may have resulted from such a shift.