A Century of Inflation Forecasts
研究了20世纪美国不同货币制度下通胀的可预测性，发现只有在缺乏明确名义锚或可信反通胀承诺的时期，基于货币和产出增长的预测才比仅基于历史通胀的预测更准确。
We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the twentieth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These include the years from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the implementation of the Bretton Woods Agreements in 1951 and from Nixon's closure of the gold window in 1971 to the end of Volcker's disinflation in 1983. © 2012 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.