STRUCTURAL PROJECTIONS OF THE SCOTTISH DAIRY INDUSTRY USING MICRO AND MACRO MARKOV TRANSITION MATRICES
比较了用容易获得的汇总数据和详细的农场层面数据预测苏格兰乳业结构变化的效果，发现产量增长可能无法弥补生产者减少，导致1980年代总产奶量下降。
This article analyses changes in the size‐structure of the dairy industry in the SMMB area. It compares the performance of projections based on easily available, aggregate data using well‐known computer routines with projections made from detailed, infrequently collected, farm‐level data. The paper suggests that although yields are continuing to rise this may no longer be sufficient to compensate for the loss of producers, so that there may be a fall in total milk output in the 1980s.