Inflationary price stability and the Great Crash: an early analysis reconsidered
重新审视A.D. Gayer在1935年对美国大崩盘前经济状况的分析,探讨生产率上升时价格稳定可能引发的金融不稳定,对现代通胀目标制政策有启示。
The historical account of American economic conditions before the Great Crash in A. D. Gayer's Monetary Policy and Economic Stabilisation (1935A) reflects an inter-war debate over the consequences of a stable price level when underlying productivity is rising strongly. Its account evokes, in several ways, recent concern over the emergence of financial sector instability under inflation targeting regimes. A theoretical treatment of the main analysis permits both comparison between different perspectives in thinking at the time and a critical re-examination of the relevance of this thinking to modern policy dilemmas. Nominal targets may have destabilising real sector consequences.