The Expectations-driven US Current Account
研究发现，自1991年以来，美国相对于世界其他地区的长期增长预期与经常账户赤字走势高度一致，且这种关联可通过两地区随机增长模型得到解释，表明增长预期改善是经常账户赤字积累的主要驱动力。
Since 1991, survey expectations of long-run output growth for the U.S. relative to the rest of the world exhibit a pattern strikingly similar to that of the U.S. current account, and thus also to global imbalances. We show that this finding can to a large extent be rationalized in a two-region stochastic growth model simulated using expected trend growth filtered from observed productivity. In line with the intertemporal approach to the current account, a major part of the buildup of the U.S. current account deficit appears to be driven by the optimal response of households and firms to improved growth prospects.