The Influence of Higher Moments of Earnings Distributions on Career Decisions
利用1972年美国高中班级的全国纵向调查数据，研究收入分布的高阶矩如何影响大学毕业生的初始职业选择，发现收入预测与进入某职业的概率呈强正相关。
A model where choice of occupation is sequential is applied to college graduates from the National Longitudinal Study of High School Class of 1972 to investigate how higher moments of occupational earnings distributions influence initial field of work. Individual specific life-cycle earnings projections that incorporate option values of occupational mobility are generated, and the relationship between these pay measures and choice of initial occupation is explored within a multinomial logit framework. The findings indicate a strong positive relationship between these earnings predictions and the likelihood that college graduates enter an occupation. Copyright 1997 by University of Chicago Press.