Estimating End-use Demand: A Bayesian Approach
提出用贝叶斯方法解决条件需求分析中两个关键问题：消除负的电器消费估计值，以及将直接计量数据纳入估计过程。通过澳大利亚家庭电力消费数据验证了该方法的可行性。
Eliminating negative end-use or appliance-consumption estimates and incorporating direct-metering information into the process of generating these estimates—these are two important aspects of conditional demand analysis that will be the focus of this article. In both cases a Bayesian approach seems a natural way of proceeding. What needs to be investigated is whether it is also a viable and effective approach. In addition, such a framework naturally lends itself to prediction. Our application involves the estimation of electrical-appliance consumptions for a sample of Australian households. This application is designed to illustrate the viability of a full Bayesian analysis of the problem.