Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications
提出预测效率概念，即预测应包含当时所有可用信息。实证检验了宏观、能源消费和油价预测，发现51个检验中有50个显示预测修正存在正自相关，与效率假设不符。
This article introduces the concept of forecast efficiency, in which the forecast contains all information available at the time of the forecast. Empirical tests investigate weak efficiency, where the information set is all past forecasts and where all forecast revisions and errors should be uncorrelated with past forecast revisions. Tests of macroeconomic, energy-consumption, and oil-price forecasts find a significant autocorrelation of forecast revisions, with fifty of fifty-one tests showing positive correlation of forecast revisions, as opposed to zero correlation consistent with forecast efficiency. Copyright 1987 by MIT Press.