Greek meat supply response and price volatility in a rational expectations framework: a multivariate GARCH approach
研究了希腊四大肉类市场（牛肉、肉鸡、羊肉、猪肉）在理性预期框架下的供给反应，用多元GARCH模型分析价格波动对生产的影响，发现价格波动是主要风险因素，且欧盟共同农业政策改革对牛肉和羊肉生产有负面影响。
This paper examines supply response models in a rational expectations framework for each one of the four major Greek meat markets, i.e. beef, broiler, lamb and pork. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with Cholesky decomposition is used to incorporate price volatility into the rational expectations supply response model for each meat category and as a result the conditional covariance matrix remains positive definite without imposing any restrictions on the parameters. The empirical results confirm the existence of rational behaviour by meat producers in the four examined markets and indicate that price volatility is a major risk factor in Greek meat production. Furthermore, the last Common Agricultural Policy reform is found to have a negative impact on beef and lamb production in Greece.