Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Some New Evidence
用稳健的识别方法重新审视美国货币政策的不确定性，发现1979年前政策无效的结论可靠，但沃尔克-格林斯潘时期证据不明确，且近期政策反应更渐进，凸显识别问题的重要性。
I revisit the question of indeterminacy in US monetary policy using limited-information identification-robust methods. I find that the conclusions of Clarida, Galí, and Gernter (2000) that policy was inactive before 1979 are robust, but the evidence over the Volcker-Greenspan periods is inconclusive. I show that this is in fact consistent with policy being active over that period. Problems of identification also arise because policy reaction has been more gradual recently. At a methodological level, the paper demonstrates that identification issues should be taken seriously, and that identification-robust methods can be informative even when they produce wide confidence sets. (E31, E32, E52, E65,)